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2019: A Year in Review Thumbnail

2019: A Year in Review

Next month we will return with the second installment on the two unprecedented changes unfolding in the world today that will have (and are already having) enormous impact on our lives and investments. Last month we discussed the cessation of global warfare and next we will address population growth. But as I write this on New Year’s Eve it is worthwhile taking a quick glance at 2019 and looking ahead a bit to 2020.

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This Time Is Different: Two Trends No One Is Talking About Thumbnail

This Time Is Different: Two Trends No One Is Talking About

“This time it’s different” is an oft-repeated remark by economists and market pundits (and the title of a 2010 book by Harvard economists Carmen Reinhart and Ken Rogoff). In a literal sense it’s always true, each time is different; but figuratively, it is often false as “history repeats itself” and the next cycle looks a lot like past ones (the point of Reinhart and Rogoff’s book).. However, with respect to several dominant themes in the history of civilization, this time is different.

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Big Picture Risk Thumbnail

Big Picture Risk

Last month we began a discussion about risk. Most of what we discussed was basic, which isn’t to say unimportant, and certainly uncontroversial. This month we take a deeper dive into “risk” and the conclusions might be more “unsettling”. Let’s think about risk in the big picture.

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Predicting the Future

It is the end of the 2nd quarter of 2019 and the S&P 500 is up over 17% (without dividends) since we blew the horns last New Year’s Eve. Not one Wall Street economist, market strategist, TV pundit, or anyone else whose work I can find in places like Barron’s, The Wall Street Journal, The Financial Times, etc. expected this. Most predictions were not even close.

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Markets and Volatility

In a timely follow-up to our last piece on fusion technology making fossil fuels obsolete, The Economist magazine (in its May 4, 2019 issue) published two articles on new developments in fusion reactors and the private sector’s role in providing funding for new projects.

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